Ohio shenanigans notwithstanding, I still say Kerry will win, although I am concerned about problems with provisional voting and electronic machines.
First the good news.
- Polls are skewed towards Republicans. Let's not forget that 4 years ago polls showed Bush beating Gore. If polls show a dead heat, that means Kerry is actually ahead.
- Newly registered voters are anti-Bush. Even if only half of them vote, there are enough of them to put Kerry over the top.
- Because Kerry will win by a wider margin, the GOP needs to cheat a lot in order to win. They will need more than poll challengers in Ohio.
- Only the worst of the warmongers still support the occupation of Iraq. This election is the first opportunity for Americans to vote on the war, and they are voting no.
- Turn out will be much higher than last time. That helps Kerry.
Now the bad news.
- There are reports of voters choosing Kerry on electronic machines (scroll down) that instead show a vote for Bush.
- The rules for counting provisional ballots vary widely. Some states will count them right away, others have two weeks.
I should also add that high turn out means long lines, and that means that voting will go one past the time of official poll closings. We may not know the winner tonight or tomorrow, but I still say that all signs point to a Kerry win.